Weekly Market Commentary

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Week of Aug. 10 through Aug. 14, 2026

The S&P 500 index rose 0.4% this week after cooling inflation and an unexpected drop in retail sales boosted the odds for a sixth straight monetary policy pause in September.

The market benchmark ended the week at 7,785.76. The index is now up 3.8% quarter-to-date and 14% this year.

The probability of the Federal Reserve extending its policy pause next month jumped after July's consumer and wholesale price inflation rates, both headline and core, declined and retail sales for the month unexpectedly slumped the most since May 2025. There's now a 67% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged, up from 56% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on CNN that the US plans to announce measures on Iran next week that have "never been seen."

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US can sustain its blockade against Iran "indefinitely," Al Jazeera reported.

The energy sector in the S&P 500 had the largest percentage gain of the week, up 7.3%, followed by a 1.5% advance in utilities and 1% increases for both consumer staples and health care. Financials, industrials, real estate and tech also rose week to week.

Phillips 66 (PSX) is expected to accelerate share repurchases in H2 this year, supported by ongoing balance sheet deleveraging, UBS said in a note. Separately, Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan (KMI), and HF Sinclair (DINO) said they have reached a final investment decision to move forward with a joint venture to build the $5 billion Western Gateway Pipeline system. Shares of Phillips 66 surged 15% this week.

Three S&P 500 sectors that declined this week were consumer discretionary, communication services and materials, down 2%, 1% and 0.9%, respectively.

Tapestry (TPR) shares tumbled 21% this week after the company set out a fiscal 2027 revenue outlook below the midpoint of Wall Street's forecast range, taking the shine off stronger-than-expected fiscal Q4 adjusted earnings and revenue.

AppLovin's (APP) 30% long-term annual revenue growth target lacks sufficient evidence, with uncertainty rising around the sustainability of its self-learning growth, BofA Securities said in a report. BofA downgraded its rating on AppLovin stock to neutral from buy and lowered its price target to $400 from $430. Shares of Applovin slumped 9% this week.

Home Depot (HD), Analog Devices (ADI), TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe's Companies (LOW), Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT), Deere (DE), Ross Stores (ROST), NetEase (NTES) are among the companies reporting quarterly results next week.

Economic data due next week includes the July minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, S&P Global manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indexes, industrial production, building permits and housing starts.

Provided by MT Newswires.