Weekly Market Commentary

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Week of Aug. 11 through Aug. 15, 2025

The S&P 500 index rose 0.9% this week, scaling new peaks in four consecutive trading sessions, as the probability of an interest-rate cut in September remained elevated following divergent inflation reports.

The S&P 500 ended Friday's session at 6,449.80, bringing quarter-to-date gains to 4%, and year-to-date growth to 9.7%.

Following a weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday and a surprise drop in the Institute for Supply Management's US services index, the US seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose 0.2% in July, as expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg, and below the 0.3% gain in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday.

The odds of a 25-basis-point cut in September reached 99.9% after the soft consumer price data, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. This near-certain probability, however, dissipated to 92% on Thursday after BLS data showed the Producer Price Index rose 0.9% in July, from no growth in June, and compared with the 0.2% increase forecast in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

The rate-cut probability settled at 89% late on Friday after the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 58.6 in August from 61.7 in July, below expectations for an increase to 62 in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. Respondents' one-year inflation forecasts at 4.9% were up from 4.5% in July, while five-year inflation outlook climbed to 3.9% from 3.4%.

Healthcare, communication services, and consumer discretionary were the top three gainers this week.

Eli Lilly ( LLY ) is among several Western pharmaceutical companies that have applied for their drugs and treatments to be included in China's new catalog of commercial health insurance, according to a Bloomberg report. Separately, Eli Lilly announced that its obesity and type 2 diabetes drug Mounjaro in its KwikPen form is now available across India in all doses. The company also plans to increase the price of Mounjaro in the UK, starting in September, to align pricing with other developed countries.

Shares of Eli Lilly ( LLY ) jumped 12% this week.

Meanwhile, Paramount Skydance ( PSKY ) announced it will develop its Nickelodeon, MTV, and BET networks, as well as boost feature film production, according to multiple media reports. The announcement comes a week after the $8.4 billion merger of Paramount Global and Skydance Media. Shares of Paramount Skydance surged 31% this week.

The consumer staples sector was the worst-performing in the S&P 500 this week, down 0.6%.

Kroger ( KR ) said it settled a lawsuit filed by C&S Wholesale Grocers in Delaware's Superior Court. C&S claimed in the lawsuit that it was owed a $125 million termination fee related to Kroger's failed $25 billion acquisition of Albertsons, under which C&S would acquire nearly 600 stores, according to media reports. Shares of Kroger dropped 5.9% this week.

Next week's earnings calendar features Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) , Home Depot ( HD ) , TJX Companies ( TJX ) , Lowe's Companies (LOW), Walmart ( WMT ) , and Intuit (INTU).

Economic data due next week includes July's building permits and housing starts as well as existing home sales, and minutes of the FOMC's July 29-30 meeting. The week will also see the beginning of the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, a congregation of global central bankers, which will be watched even more closely as the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could use the podium to signal the restart of monetary policy easing in September.

Provided by MT Newswires.